Ending War Myths

[Jake]

I've always found it rather bothersome that our generation finds that war is good for the country and its economy. The truth is quite contrary. I read alot of economic news and I found a well written paper that i wanted to share, so that our generation can look upon war as it should be, and not be so quick to jump into one, without realizing its true consequences.

"The myth of the war economy"

Joseph Stiglitz
Wednesday January 22, 2003
The Guardian

War is widely thought to be linked to economic good times. The second world war is often said to have brought the world out of depression, and war has since enhanced its reputation as a spur to economic growth. Some even suggest that capitalism needs wars, that without them, recession would always lurk on the horizon.
Today, we know that this is nonsense. The 1990s boom showed that peace is economically far better than war. The Gulf war of 1991 demonstrated that wars can actually be bad for an economy. That conflict contributed mightily to the onset of the recession of 1991 (which was probably the key factor in denying the first President Bush re-election in 1992).

The current situation is far more akin to the Gulf war than to wars that may have contributed to economic growth. Indeed, the economic effects of a second war against Iraq would probably be far more adverse. The second world war called for total mobilisation, requiring a country's total resources, and that is what wiped out unemployment. Total war means total employment.

By contrast, the direct costs of a military attack on Saddam Hussein's regime will be minuscule in terms of total US spending. Most analysts put the total costs of the war at less than 0.1% of GDP, the highest at 0.2% of GDP. Much of that, moreover, includes the usage of munitions that already exist, implying that little or no stimulus will be provided to today's economy.

Bush's (admittedly wavering) commitment to fiscal prudence means that much, perhaps most, of the war costs will be offset by cuts elsewhere. Investments in education, health, research, and the environment will almost inevitably be crowded out. Accordingly, war will be unambiguously bad in terms of what really counts: ordinary people's standard of living.

America will thus be poorer, both now and in the future. Obviously, if this military adventure were necessary to maintain security as its advocates claim - and if it were to prove as successful as its boosters hope - then the cost might be worth it. But that is another matter. I want to debunk the idea that it is possible both to achieve the war's ends and benefit the economy.

There is also the uncertainty factor. Of course, this is no reason to invade Iraq prematurely, for the costs of any war are high, and are not to be measured primarily in economic terms. Lives will be lost - possibly far more than were lost on September 11. But the wait for war adds to uncertainties that already weigh on the US, and the global, economy: uncertainties arising from America's looming fiscal deficit and a tax cut that the country cannot afford; uncertainties arising from the unfinished "war on terrorism"; uncertainties associated with the corporate accounting and banking scandals, and the Bush administration's half-hearted efforts at reform, as a result of which no one knows what America's corporations are worth; uncertainties connected to America's massive trade deficit, which has reached all-time highs - will foreigners be willing to continue to lend to the US at a rate in excess of a billion dollars a day? Uncertainties associated with Europe's stability pact. Will it survive, and will it be good for Europe if it does? Finally, uncertainties associated with Japan: will it at long last fix its banking system, and if it does, how negative will be the short-term impact?

Some suggest that the US may be going to war to advance its oil interests. Few can doubt the influence that oil interests have on President Bush - witness the administration's energy policy, with its emphasis on expanding oil production rather than conservation. But even from the perspective of oil interests, war against Iraq is a risky venture: not only is the impact on price highly uncertain, but other oil producers, will not easily be ignored.

Indeed, should the US go to war, no one can predict the effect on oil supplies. A peaceful, democratic Iraqi regime could be established. Desperate for funds for reconstruction, that new regime could sell large amounts of oil, lowering global oil prices. Or the turmoil throughout the Muslim world could lead to disruptions of oil supplies, with high prices the result. This will please oil producers in other parts of the world, but will have adverse consequences for the global economy, akin to those resulting from the oil hikes in 1973.

Whichever way one looks at it, the economic effects of war with Iraq will not be good. Markets loathe uncertainty and volatility. War, and anticipation of war, bring both. We should be prepared for them.

· Joseph Stiglitz is professor of economics and finance at Columbia University, the winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics, and author of Globalization and its Discontents. He was formerly chairman of the council of economic advisers to President Clinton and chief economist at the World Bank.

[Trout Sniffer]

Jake, honestly, I don't think anyone wants to read something that you got off of another website or whatever. It was very long and if people wanted to read that, they probably could have found it on a different website or wherever the hell you got it from.

I think it was kind of stupid of you to post something like that. Your entire post was a paper that somebody else wrote. Try and think of something on your own to post instead of somebody else's works. I realize that this is nearly impossible for somebody with such a low intelligence level such as yourself, but please make an effort.

[Jake]

Trout Sniffer: First why dont shut your dirty ass mouth before I stick somthing in it!
Second, why the fuck does it matter if i wrote it or not. The point is that it's a good essay. Your dumbass beliefs are that no one should ever recommend a book or paper to anybody else. Well thats pretty much fuckin retarded. Well if thats what you believe then you should never read another book or watch the news ever again because it wouldnt be your original thought. So you should sit around on your ass all day long and try to figure out the universe by yourself. Well go ahead, the rest of the world wont wait and we will leave your sorry ass behind.

First off, I didn't even read the stupid fucking essay. It's probably liberal as hell seeings how you're a homosexual. War kicks ass, bring the war on.

Also noticed a glaring flaw in the stupid paper when I mexi skimmed it.

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>The 1990s boom showed that peace is economically far better than war. The Gulf war of 1991 demonstrated that wars can actually be bad for an economy. That conflict contributed mightily to the onset of the recession of 1991 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

What the fuck? the 1990s boom, then you talk about the 1991 recession? Makes sense to me. Although, I do know the "boom" they're talking about occured in the later years of the 1990s, the dipshit that wrote this could have been more specific, what a stupid fucker, just like you. Go smoke some cock.



[This message has been edited by 50 Cent (edited January 23, 2003).]

[Jake]

50cent: considering that there was only one 1990's boom is was pretty fucking obvious of which they were talkin about. I guess all the pot you smoke must be affecting your brain or something. It takes a pretty big dumbass as to not understand the statement by the author.

Second im glad your for war, i would gladly send your stupid ass over there to get ass raped by Iraqi muslim extremists. I guess it would be entertaining to watch

Hey, faggot, whipe the semen out of your eyes you stupid fuck. I clearly stated in my explanation of the stupid ass quote that they meant the latter part of the 1990s. Please kill yourself. Maybe one day you'll be the victim of a hate crime, one can only hope.

Also, if they do send me over to iraq to kick some serious ass, I'll be happy to. Once they send me over there the war would be over basically b/c I'd kick serious ass. You, on the other hand, would probably skip your fairy ass over the boarder to Canada to ride some dick.

------------------
- 50 Cent
"Nasty like a slut skank bitch with thirty fuckin husbands"

[victim]

Well, I have encountered Stiglitz's work before, and you could certainly say that he is pretty damn liberal on most issues. Be this as it may, Joseph Stiglitz is one of the most brilliant economists on the face of the Earth, and to view his opinions as irrelevant would be ignorant.

On another note, the economy is not that bad, it's all hype. Did you know that new statistics show that since 1999, the net worth of the average American has increased nearly 10%? Is that an economic crisis?

[This message has been edited by victim (edited January 23, 2003).]

Stiglitz is a dumb cocksucker. Disagree and you will go to hell.

[This message has been edited by 50 Cent (edited January 23, 2003).]

[victim]

Ah, who the fuck cares?
I can think of lots of things that already assured my one way ticket to hell.

..Unfortunately, I can't put your premeditated, slow, painful death on that list.

Yet.

[This message has been edited by victim (edited January 23, 2003).]

Yeah...I didn't really understand that, but if that was in some way a death threat towards me...bring it on pussy.

[Trout Sniffer]

Jake, you're a flaming homosexual who knows nothing.

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jake:
First why dont shut your dirty ass mouth before I stick somthing in it!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You sick son of a bitch, if you came within five feet of me I would beat the shit out of you so bad you wouldn't be able to get up to stick your dick in anybody's asshole. I will chop off your fucking dick, you flaming faggot!

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jake:
Your dumbass beliefs are that no one should ever recommend a book or paper to anybody else.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I didn't say that nobody should ever recommend a book or paper you fucking moron. First off, if you were just recommending it, you should have put it in the reviews sections or something. Second, this is a chat room, people come here to see what other people around them have to say, not what some dumbass essay has written in it that nobody even cares about. That post was so damn long and pointless that I doubt more than 5 people actually read the whole thing.

Get you dick out of you fucking ass and maybe you could think straight.

[This message has been edited by Trout Sniffer (edited January 23, 2003).]

[This message has been edited by Trout Sniffer (edited January 23, 2003).]

[Jake]

If your gonna get bitchy and cry go start a new forum about it... otherwise just put intelligent responses to the forum, like victim has.

[Jake]

Victim:
I didnt mean to imply that are economy is in a crisis, i just meant to indicate that war isnt necessarily for the good as alot of kids think it is.

50cent:you think your such a tough ass, if you truly got drafted you'd probably be scared shitless and cry like a little girl. Plus being the stupid shithead you are you, wouldnt be able to opperate the technology the army issued you, leading to your capture by an Iraqi soldier, and then some serious ass raping!

Faggot - Actually, I doubt I would cry like a little girl, I've seriously considered joining the military after high school, decided against it, but I'm pretty sure that's more than what you've done. Also, I'm a killing machine and I kick ass.

Also, I'm 10, maybe even 30 times smarter than you when it comes to technology. Shit, I even know how to edit posts so I don't make two posts in a row that could have easily fit into one post. HOLY SHIT!

------------------
- 50 Cent
"Nasty like a slut skank bitch with thirty fuckin husbands"

[Titan]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by 50 Cent:
Shit, I even know how to edit posts so I don't make two posts in a row that could have easily fit into one post. HOLY SHIT!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
That's the funniest fucking thing I've heard all day.

[Jake]

Damn 50cent.... you can edit a message! Sounds like your prepared for war against a country with biological and chemical weapons, damn you stupidty amazes me more and more, its a wonder god lets you survive.

[Ugly Bastard]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jake:
Damn 50cent.... you can edit a message! Sounds like your prepared for war against a country with biological and chemical weapons, damn you stupidty amazes me more and more, its a wonder god lets you survive.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

At least he's not gay.

-Ugly Bastard

[Jake]

Ugly bastard i give it to you there. You always catch me on that one....

[Ugly Bastard]

Good, now go fuck yourself.

-Ugly Bastard

[buckeye]

jake i would like to point out that in the essay that was written by that guy, that he fails to mention the fact that Kuwait, and Saudia Arabia picked up a majority of the tab on the war, so its hard for me to see how the Gulf War was the main cause of the economic recession that happened in 1991,


However since no one will be picking up the bill this time, i can see that the war infact will have a big impact on our economy.

[This message has been edited by buckeye (edited January 23, 2003).]

[Jake]

Buckeye:

Im not talking about war just for america. The war was horrible for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Plus the EU member nations picked up a big chunk of the war tab also.. But your right this time if we are not careful we could really feel the real of effects of war.

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>stupidty<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hey I also know where the delete key is on my keyboard...either that or I know how to spell stupidity...

Nice job fudgepacker.

[Trout Sniffer]

Jake, even if you wanted to join the military, they wouldn't let you cause they don't let homosexuals as yourself in. However, if you were to get in, you would get the shit kicked out of you everyday for hitting on other guys.

50 Cent is a much tougher guy than you'll ever be. He would kick the shit out of you, and your only defense would be wipping out your cock and trying to stick it in his ass.

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jake:
I just want you guys to not be so hostile and demeaning towards us.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Jake, how the hell are we supposed to treat you normal and not be hostile when you say shit like

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jake:
First why dont shut your dirty ass mouth before I stick somthing in it!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Honestly Jake, when you get on here and post shit like that, you're just asking for people to call you gay, homosexual, etc. When I bashed your post, I said absolutely nothing about you being gay and I was not just saying shit because who you are, but because of the post.

If you don't like getting called a faggot, gay, homosexual, or whatever else people call you, then quit saying shit that will instigate this name calling.

[This message has been edited by Trout Sniffer (edited January 24, 2003).]

[TheMan]

Come on everyone, leave jake alone. He is a well-meaning faggot.

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Trout Sniffer:

50 Cent is a much tougher guy than you'll ever be. He would kick the shit out of you, and your only defense would be wipping out your cock and trying to stick it in his ass.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I agree.


<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>
If you don't like getting called a faggot, gay, homosexual, or whatever else people call you, then quit saying shit that will instigate this name calling.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I agree.