The worse case scenario happened yesterday. The Astros loss while the Cardinals won. Now the Cardinals lead by 1.5 with 2 games left to play. Basically if the Cardinals win out, the division is theirs. If they go 1-1 while the Astros go 2-0, or if they go 0-2 while the Astros go 1-1, revert back to scenarios in original post. If they go 0-2 while the Astros go 2-0, the Astros will end the season up 0.5; revert back to scenarios in original post.
Basically this went from a 40%ish percent shot down to about a 15% shot with yesterday's shortcomings.
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