2012 Election

[Mr. Blonde]

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

That's saying Ron Paul even gets the nomination, which he won't.

Originally Posted by Mr. Blonde

if Ron Paul gets the GOP nomination...

[SittinOnDubsWGW]

Originally Posted by vaga1220

Actually it's up up down down left right left right A B select start.

It's B then A. Get your fucking Konami code right.

[Mr. Blonde]

Rick "rain dance" Perry is officially running. His presidential announcement is simultaneously highly braggardly and he is playing the US public like a god damn marrionnette.

Definitely spelling trouble for Obama and Romney. Also prelim Repuv picks put Ron Paul and Palin (who might not even run) at 12%. Depressing.

[angry pancake]

Perry isn't electable. It'll take a monumental fuckup by a lot of people for Perry to win this.

[Mr. Blonde]

Just getting used to real time American politics, enlighten me?as faras talking points, his speechwasnt my cup o, but i can df see it hitting home with a lot of americans.

[Cocktooth]

Judging by what I have read in the last 24 hours on this guy, he plans to put everything in God's hands and it will all work out. I honestly feel once his ball gets rolling, he will stop it himself with his crazy methodist beliefs. The only shot the republicans had in this upcoming election was Mitch Daniels. He is to smart to take over what is pretty much a lose lose situation. He announced he wasn't running, right after Osama was off'd. The best choice will be Ron Paul, but he still has zero chance of actually making noise. He will steal votes away from Perry, which will lead to the reelection of Obama. There is chances for the ultimate melt down before the election, which will change things dramatically.

[f3lix]

Ron Paul has zero chance of making noise? LOL

Paul will fare FAR better this year because what he said 4 years ago is coming true and he isn't changing his position like the other yolks.

Note, I'm not saying he'll win

[Cocktooth]

I heard that song and dance last time F3lix. Why are people so god damn stupid? It's not fucking rocket science. I know you have your bias, but look at real life. It's not worth arguing about. Noone gives a shit about Ron Paul but the handful of people that really want to make a change. I will vote for him, but I'm in the extreme minority, and if you weren't a cult follower, you would see that to. I wish you were friends with David Corresh back in the day.

[angry pancake]

Cocktooth is correct that Perry will probably just shoot himself in the foot. There's just so much shit on Perry that it won't take much effort to dig it up. Hell, this last election he was talking about secession. His brilliant idea to outsource/sell a toll road to Spain I thought would keep from getting elected this last time. He's extremely thin skinned and snaps quickly. This is a guy who twists off easily, expect the "adios, mofo" clip to get played a lot. Goes jogging with a .357 to protect his dogs from coyotes. And his Texas record is greatly distorted.

If Perry were elected, he might be the last President under this form of government.

[THEINCREDIBLEdork]

We outsourced our toll road to spain in Indiana.

[Cocktooth]

Pretty sure it was China or some Asian country. It was a 20 year lease. The toll road has gone to shit, but it did it's job in the short term. The problem is in 20 years, we have to fix all of the mess caused by this. Between 49 and the Illiniois border, pot holes and bad road conditions everywhere.


Edit: I'm not going to erase my wrong post, it was bought by a Spanish/Austrailian partnership of some sort.

[f3lix]

I watched the GOP debate and felt it was the most fair debate I've ever seen. They drilled the candidates on statements made and went for the jugular at least once on every candidate. They let candidates go at each other a few times, which was quite entertaining. Much to my amazement, Ron Paul actually had more than the average amount of camera time. As usual, the Paulites roared after his answers and Paul even dismissed Santorum TWICE, which just looked great for Paul and awful for Santorum. This wasn't your soft-ass Democratic debate by any means.

Romney used most of his time being the canned ham that he is and took shots at Obama instead of his opponents. He couldn't defend Romneycare, which is what will make or break his campaign in the next year.

Pawlenty tried to be just like Romney, but took numerous shots at Bachmann (which was pretty funny) and was even asked in a question if he was attacking her because he didn't agree with her or if it was because he was trailing to her in the polls.

Huntsman didn't react well when his extreme flip-flopping was brought up (he was an aide for Obama and has just as liberal record as conservative). I think Huntsman will struggle to find his base as there aren't enough moderates who will stretch as far in both directions as his record proves he will.

Paul was his normal self, talking too fast and over the heads of modern day Americans, though this rhetoric didn't seem so foreign as it did last time around. He trashed Santorum numerous times and went from looking like the guy who didn't belong to the guy on the offensive.

Santorum bitched and moaned about not getting enough time to speak all night long (rightfully so) yet didn't really say anything impressive or new.

Bachmann feuded with Pawlenty all night and in her first time on camera tried to fire the entire crowd up with a one-term president sound byte that mostly felt forced and fell on deaf ears. She claimed to be the champion of numerous tea party causes, though Pawlenty kept pointing out she never won a single cause. I haven't checked official minutes, but she seemed to get the most TV time. She seems ignorant on a lot of issues and tries to appeal to emotions only.

Cain wasn't nearly as ferocious as the last debate, but came off more polished and prepared, of which both benefitted him. He touted successful business experience. I think Cain is going to last a lot longer than many give him credit.

Gingrich looked awful. When the bell would ring for his time expiring, he would instantly stop, mid-sentence. He attacked the moderators right out of the gate. He had the least microphone time and just looked out of place altogether. His gave a rolling speech about exposing the federal reserve, which sounded word for word like a Ron Paul sound byte from a few years ago.

[Cocktooth]

Ron Paul came out of that debate smelling like roses, I agree. Problem being, he doesn't have a true party tag. The republicans aren't going to let him represent their party, and that takes away his impact in this race. Not to mention, I would suggest that debates have very little to do with what is now a glorified popularity contest. Pretty much we are chosing our homecoming king.

[f3lix]

At the Ames Straw Poll, Bachmann and Paul kill everybody combining for over 50% of the vote with Paul getting 2nd by 1-2%

[DDTempest]

All these fucktard middle aged white men need to drop out of the race immediately ... they are all the same thing in the voters' eyes and are dividing the non-bachman vote in too many directions. One of the worst things that could happen to this country is Bachman being elected president because the economy tanks and the "old white dudes" divided the republican vote in enough directions to allow her to win the primary.

[Ugly Bastard]

At the moment only viable* R candidate I'd vote for instead of Obama is Ron Paul. Nothing but contempt for Obama and Democratic party, but it's less than contempt I have for GOP. But I'll probably "throw my vote away" for whatever Perot/Nader figure is in the race.

*Ron Paul is not a viable candidate.

[Cocktooth]

Romney and perry weren't even apart of the poll. The combined for almost 1300 write in votes. 700 perry, Romney 500. One of those 2 will be your republican candidate.

[Ugly Bastard]

Originally Posted by Cocktooth

Romney and perry weren't even apart of the poll. The combined for almost 1300 write in votes. 700 perry, Romney 500. One of those 2 will be your republican candidate.

Cocktooth owns f3lix.

And I agree, it's pretty clearly Romney or Perry at this stage. But anything can happen; John McCain was as low as 2% to win the R nom around this time in 2007.

[Repugnant Abomination]

Ron Paul has already been as much of a factor as he's going to be - he largely shaped the direction of the conversation. He remains unelectable, however. Bachmann will flame out eventually. I agree that it will come down to Romney and Perry, in which case I'd MUCH rather have Romney. Perry probably has a better chance of beating Obama, however, which is just terrifying; he's been described as George W Bush on steroids.

[f3lix]

Place Candidate Percentage
1 Michele Bachmann 28.6%
2 Ron Paul 27.7%
3 Tim Pawlenty 13.6%
4 Rick Santorum 9.8%
5 Herman Cain 8.6%
6 Rick Perry (write-in) 4.3%
7 Mitt Romney 3.4%
8 Newt Gingrich 2.3%
9 Jon Huntsman 0.4%
10 Thaddeus McCotter 0.2%
— Scattering 162 1.0%

Romney WAS on the ballot, WAS in the debate, yet claimed he "wasn't participating." That's a sure-fire way to avoid explanations when you are going to lose the straw poll. Here's some interesting points to note:

1. Bachmann handed out over 6,000 tickets, while Paul handed out 2,750. Look at the final numbers. That quite telling of who paid for support to be there and where those votes ended up going. (Bachmann had ~1,200 less votes than tickets passed out, Paul had ~2,000 more votes than tickets passed out.)

2. Rick Perry couldn't have picked a worse time to steal the show, since Iowans will surely remember this act come the caucuses later in the year.

3. It was known for almost a month that Rick Perry would be a write-in candidate on the ballot, so acting like it's a big deal that he pulled 4.3% in this manner isn't really anything special.

4. Tea-Party backed Bachmann and Libertarian Paul took 56.3% of the vote. That is nothing to brush off the shoulder, considering there was an increase in voting by over 20% from last cycle's straw poll.

5. Pawlenty put everything he had into this straw poll and got steamrolled. While he made a speech afterwards saying he's still in, I doubt his donors will still fight for him with this anemic showing.

6. On a personal note, I almost sent money to Gary Johnson who decided to be in a bike race in Colorado instead of even show up in Iowa. Glad I didn't send him anything.

[f3lix]

Originally Posted by Repugnant Abomination

Ron Paul has already been as much of a factor as he's going to be

Quoting for posterity

[f3lix]

Pawlenty drops out. This isn't too surprising after the throttling he took on his all-in attempt in Iowa. That's one big establishment candidate down, thus creating a new top 4 at Iowa all being guys (and a girl) of whom are waving fresh ideas to America.

The winner of those 4 will square off against Romney and Perry. The GOP will get to choose how extreme they want to be. Honestly, this election might turn into Big Government Obama vs. Small Government GOP candidate. America's vote would be quite interesting, if that were the case.

[Repugnant Abomination]

Originally Posted by f3lix

Quoting for posterity

Shaping the direction of the Republican conversation (and as a result the national conversation), Ron Paul has already done more than anyone ever thought he would. But he has absolutely zero chance of being the Republican nominee, not to even speak of becoming president. His strength has always been hardcore supporters like you (formerly me) who outwork and out organize the other candidates early on. The problem is that his base is pretty much set in stone - it's not going to grow or shrink. So as he appears on bigger and bigger stages, he becomes more marginalized, because the percentage of people who support him become less; he has a strong, narrow niche, but no broad appeal.

[f3lix]

Repug, what are you smoking? Read the politics threads on this site from 07 if you think he outperformed what everybody thought he would do. We called it the Ron Paul Revolution for a reason and claimed things would be different in the next Presidential cycle. They are VERY different. Paul managed just over 9% and 5th place at the last Ames Straw Poll. This year, over 26%, losing by less than one percent. He's getting more face time, less stupid questions (are you running for the wrong party?) and others are starting to say the things he's said for years. Will he win? Very slim chance, but still better than the "zero" you claim. If you truly believe he's a 0% chance to win, then accept my bet. I'll be you one penny versus every dollar you have that Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination.

[DJ FC]

Originally Posted by Repugnant Abomination

But he has absolutely zero chance of being the Republican nominee,

Ahem... Intrade - Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 is 4.7% probable

4.7% chance of being the nominee. If you disagree, put your money where your mouth is. Otherwise stop spouting rubbish.