Stocks of the month - Nubblies.net Forums

ur my bitch · 10-20-2005, 10:24 PM

I went long Time Warner Telecom (TWTC), I think they are a good take over target.

I also think there is some value in Equinix (EQIX)

Anyone here have some good picks, maybe your finance professors think they have a scoop?

AcTivE · 10-20-2005, 10:45 PM

fuck you

ur my bitch · 10-20-2005, 11:21 PM

I don't think that's a proper ticker.....unless that is the name of the company that supplies you with butt beeds Miss Active

10-20-2005, 11:34 PM

Just completed this portfolio 2 days ago for an investments class. Dont put much faith in it, it's mostly CAPM mumo-jumbo with too much emphasis put on past performance, but it could be interesting to follow how it does:

Bud 28.6%
GPS (9.9%)
PG 34.6%
BBY 28.3%
MCD (12.5%)
ORCL 6.5%
VMC 39.2%
F (23.9%)
BA 1.1%
LUV 6.8%
DIS (24.3%)
BP 23.6%
SPLS 1.9%

In parenthasies represents short positions, the weights should equal 1 if I typed it all correctly. Theoretically this portfolio should provide 2.5% expected monthly return with a St. Dev. of 5.2% monthly.

[ October 20, 2005, 09:35 PM: Message edited by: DJ FC ]

ur my bitch · 10-20-2005, 11:53 PM

I will pull some data on those stocks and give you estimate info, and some other predictors.

How far back did your historical data go, and what did you do to predict future performance?

10-21-2005, 12:21 AM

8 years monthly returns adjusted for splits, dividends, etc

We predict future performance on betas and alphas, like I said, the project used CAPM... if you are familiar with that.

This portfolio is what's known as an "optimal portfolio," it provides the highest Sharpe Ratio (Reward to Risk) of any other combination of these stocks.

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 12:35 AM

Capital Asset Pricing Model?

Strictly Beta's and Alpha's? no EPS measures or Historical Earnings Surprises?

Why 8 yrs? Just curious. Most analysts model with a minuimum of 10 yrs, but try to go back 30 yrs to back test. Not that I know how ot run the models or anything.

sounds like a fun class.

10-21-2005, 12:41 AM

Yes.

Pretty much Betas and Alphas.

8 years was profs recommendation, beyond 8 years many companies aren't even close to what they are today.

Pretty basic investments really.

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 12:46 AM

everyoneon the street is Bearish on Bud. They are near their 52 wek low and the median price target is only $43.00 This may be over weighted in your portfolio.

BUD options look to be heavy on the lower price range.

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 12:49 AM

GPS is struggling, I think that is a good short. Consensus is $21.00, but I don't know why, every analyst has downwardly revised EPS estimates.

PG....nice staple. Closed at $55.17 today, but if you look purely at the charts, it looks poised to open higher. $62.50 is the median target price.

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 09:57 AM

Google closed at $303.20 yesterday. Watch it take off today and probably hit $345-$350

GOOG

theMerciless1 · 10-21-2005, 01:47 PM

i really need to learn more about investing.
my portfolio is up 15% in 9 months but it was just luck.

THEINCREDIBLEdork · 10-21-2005, 01:55 PM

didn't google originally sell for like 20 bucks?

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 02:22 PM

no, it IPO'd at $180 I think

AcTivE · 10-21-2005, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ur my bitch:
I don't think that's a proper ticker.....unless that is the name of the company that supplies you with butt beeds Miss Active

yea it is the proper symbol because they do happen to provide me with butt beads

10-21-2005, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by theMerciless1:
i really need to learn more about investing.
my portfolio is up 15% in 9 months but it was just luck.

If there was one thing to learn, I would say to look for stocks with low correlations to each other and make a portfolio out of those.

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ur my bitch:
Google closed at $303.20 yesterday. Watch it take off today and probably hit $345-$350

GOOG

GOOG opened at $345.80. Today's Hi was $346.43 and it closed at $339.90

Keep an eye on TWTC, FCN, EQIX

10-21-2005, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DJ FC:
F (23.9%)

Down 8.9% in 4 days.

[ October 21, 2005, 03:28 PM: Message edited by: DJ FC ]

hellcat · 10-21-2005, 07:48 PM

I've been looking at Walmart. They've gone down recently because they got hit fairly hard by Katrina but the earning per share are pretty low. Sales have been increasing just not at the same rate as in the past. This is a company that will be around for a while and now seems like a pretty good time to buy at a decent price.

Asking for stock recommendations/picks without talking about the investment style is pretty worthless though. Are you looking to hold for a few months and sell? Day trading, etc. Or for long term growth potential?

10-21-2005, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by hellcat:
Asking for stock recommendations/picks without talking about the investment style is pretty worthless though.

Not necessarily.

One strategy (which my project was based upon) is to form the portfolio with the highest risk/reward ratio... no matter how much risk there is. This portfolio can then be diluted with a risk-free investment so that the entire portfolio can match the risk profile of the invester.

Don't want to take on much risk? Try 80% risk free assets and only 20% of the risky portfolio.

Carnivorous Flavor · 10-21-2005, 08:57 PM

im fucking broke.

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 11:27 PM

Your last 4 days return. Of course this doens't neccesarily represent a true 4 day return because I based all prices off of Tuesdays open and today's close

Bud 28.6% down .3%
GPS (9.9%) up 1.4%
PG 34.6% down .7%
BBY 28.3% up 3%
MCD (12.5%) up .4%
ORCL 6.5% down .9%
VMC 39.2% down 2.3%
F (23.9%) down 3.6%
BA 1.1% down 1.4%
LUV 6.8% up 2.4%
DIS (24.3%) down 1.5%
BP 23.6% down 1.23%
SPLS 1.9% up 2.5%

Staples, Bed bath & Beyond and Southwest are your best 4 day longs...Disney and Ford were good shorts

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DJ FC:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by hellcat:
Asking for stock recommendations/picks without talking about the investment style is pretty worthless though.

Not necessarily.

One strategy (which my project was based upon) is to form the portfolio with the highest risk/reward ratio... no matter how much risk there is. This portfolio can then be diluted with a risk-free investment so that the entire portfolio can match the risk profile of the invester.

Don't want to take on much risk? Try 80% risk free assets and only 20% of the risky portfolio.</font>[/quote]
Doesn't work that way in the real world. Too many factors to consider, plus you are still telling a rookie to make opredictions with his money by trying to pick good long or short positions randomly.

ur my bitch · 10-21-2005, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by hellcat:
I've been looking at Walmart. They've gone down recently because they got hit fairly hard by Katrina but the earning per share are pretty low. Sales have been increasing just not at the same rate as in the past. This is a company that will be around for a while and now seems like a pretty good time to buy at a decent price.

Asking for stock recommendations/picks without talking about the investment style is pretty worthless though. Are you looking to hold for a few months and sell? Day trading, etc. Or for long term growth potential?

only $.01 a share is due to hurricane charges. long term price targets are at $57, so a $10 uptick.....but the problem is it will take a lot of shares to make it worth your time to invest in WMT.

For me, I typically don't ook to hold for the ling term with most of my equities. I will buy an indexed fund for LT holdings. Otherwise, I try to pick value and buy on a dip if I can and then sell when I think the stock has hit a peak.

For my long term equity holdings, I buy for yield. I re-invest the dividends and therefore my # of shares will grow. I always hope the stock will appreciate, but I don't worry about short term losses.

10-22-2005, 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by ur my bitch:
Bed bath & Beyond

Best Buy

10-20-2005, 10:45 PM	#2 (permalink)
AcTivE 1 thing leads to another. Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 2,012 Internets: -2654	fuck you
	___________________ 3:o) horned creatures...wat wat ___________________

10-20-2005, 11:34 PM	#4 (permalink)
DJ FC Guest Posts: n/a	Just completed this portfolio 2 days ago for an investments class. Dont put much faith in it, it's mostly CAPM mumo-jumbo with too much emphasis put on past performance, but it could be interesting to follow how it does: Bud 28.6% GPS (9.9%) PG 34.6% BBY 28.3% MCD (12.5%) ORCL 6.5% VMC 39.2% F (23.9%) BA 1.1% LUV 6.8% DIS (24.3%) BP 23.6% SPLS 1.9% In parenthasies represents short positions, the weights should equal 1 if I typed it all correctly. Theoretically this portfolio should provide 2.5% expected monthly return with a St. Dev. of 5.2% monthly. [ October 20, 2005, 09:35 PM: Message edited by: DJ FC ]
DJ FC Guest Posts: n/a

10-21-2005, 12:21 AM	#6 (permalink)
DJ FC Guest Posts: n/a	8 years monthly returns adjusted for splits, dividends, etc We predict future performance on betas and alphas, like I said, the project used CAPM... if you are familiar with that. This portfolio is what's known as an "optimal portfolio," it provides the highest Sharpe Ratio (Reward to Risk) of any other combination of these stocks.
DJ FC Guest Posts: n/a

10-21-2005, 12:41 AM	#8 (permalink)
DJ FC Guest Posts: n/a	Yes. Pretty much Betas and Alphas. 8 years was profs recommendation, beyond 8 years many companies aren't even close to what they are today. Pretty basic investments really.
DJ FC Guest Posts: n/a

10-21-2005, 01:47 PM	#12 (permalink)
theMerciless1 Senior Member Join Date: May 2005 Location: ming\'s palace Posts: 1,495 Internets: 412	i really need to learn more about investing. my portfolio is up 15% in 9 months but it was just luck.
	i who have nothing but the comfort of my sins

10-20-2005, 10:24 PM	#1 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	I went long Time Warner Telecom (TWTC), I think they are a good take over target. I also think there is some value in Equinix (EQIX) Anyone here have some good picks, maybe your finance professors think they have a scoop?

10-20-2005, 11:21 PM	#3 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	I don't think that's a proper ticker.....unless that is the name of the company that supplies you with butt beeds Miss Active

10-20-2005, 11:53 PM	#5 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	I will pull some data on those stocks and give you estimate info, and some other predictors. How far back did your historical data go, and what did you do to predict future performance?

10-21-2005, 12:35 AM	#7 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	Capital Asset Pricing Model? Strictly Beta's and Alpha's? no EPS measures or Historical Earnings Surprises? Why 8 yrs? Just curious. Most analysts model with a minuimum of 10 yrs, but try to go back 30 yrs to back test. Not that I know how ot run the models or anything. sounds like a fun class.

10-21-2005, 12:46 AM	#9 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	everyoneon the street is Bearish on Bud. They are near their 52 wek low and the median price target is only $43.00 This may be over weighted in your portfolio. BUD options look to be heavy on the lower price range.

10-21-2005, 12:49 AM	#10 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	GPS is struggling, I think that is a good short. Consensus is $21.00, but I don't know why, every analyst has downwardly revised EPS estimates. PG....nice staple. Closed at $55.17 today, but if you look purely at the charts, it looks poised to open higher. $62.50 is the median target price.

10-21-2005, 09:57 AM	#11 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	Google closed at $303.20 yesterday. Watch it take off today and probably hit $345-$350 GOOG

10-21-2005, 01:55 PM	#13 (permalink)
THEINCREDIBLEdork Emperor Meow Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,353 Internets: 290966	didn't google originally sell for like 20 bucks?
	#YOLO

10-21-2005, 02:22 PM	#14 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	no, it IPO'd at $180 I think

10-21-2005, 07:48 PM	#19 (permalink)
hellcat Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 316 Internets: 10	I've been looking at Walmart. They've gone down recently because they got hit fairly hard by Katrina but the earning per share are pretty low. Sales have been increasing just not at the same rate as in the past. This is a company that will be around for a while and now seems like a pretty good time to buy at a decent price. Asking for stock recommendations/picks without talking about the investment style is pretty worthless though. Are you looking to hold for a few months and sell? Day trading, etc. Or for long term growth potential?
	“This year will go down in history. For the first time, a civilized nation has full gun registration! Our streets will be safer, our police more efficient, and the world will follow our lead into the future!” -- Adolf Hitler 1935

10-21-2005, 08:57 PM	#21 (permalink)
Carnivorous Flavor Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: tracking schroeder Posts: 703 Internets: 10	im fucking broke.
	i'm the sinful stench that wafts through nostrils of the righteous....

10-21-2005, 11:27 PM	#22 (permalink)
ur my bitch Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: NY Posts: 540 Internets: 406	Your last 4 days return. Of course this doens't neccesarily represent a true 4 day return because I based all prices off of Tuesdays open and today's close Bud 28.6% down .3% GPS (9.9%) up 1.4% PG 34.6% down .7% BBY 28.3% up 3% MCD (12.5%) up .4% ORCL 6.5% down .9% VMC 39.2% down 2.3% F (23.9%) down 3.6% BA 1.1% down 1.4% LUV 6.8% up 2.4% DIS (24.3%) down 1.5% BP 23.6% down 1.23% SPLS 1.9% up 2.5% Staples, Bed bath & Beyond and Southwest are your best 4 day longs...Disney and Ford were good shorts