Interesting Theoretical Question About $$$ - Nubblies.net Forums

Ugly Bastard · 05-14-2008, 01:07 AM

Some poker players I met posed an interesting theoretical question. I think it's best to answer this question without any influence from the answers of others. I'm going to make a ton of space between the question and my answer. Before scrolling down to read anyone's answer, post your own answer. I think it'll be interesting to see how you answer varies from everyone elses in a vacuum.

The question: You can either have a.) X amount of money or b.) the chance to flip a coin where you either win $0 or $1 billion. What is the lowest value of X in which you will choose the first option? Take some time to come up with your answer.
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My Answer: $8 million

THEINCREDIBLEdork · 05-14-2008, 03:12 AM

50 million

Heaven Can Wait · 05-14-2008, 04:13 AM

1.1 BILLION

DJ FC · 05-14-2008, 05:34 AM

$10 million

Cocktooth · 05-14-2008, 06:06 AM

100 Million.

Heaven Can Wait · 05-14-2008, 09:10 AM

I figure the idea of this is that a billion is pretty much an infinate amount of cash, in theory you should go for half, but thats not the point of it at all.
I'd take enough for my family to live off, probably around $12 mill

Orgazmo · 05-14-2008, 09:53 AM

35 million. I realize that this is giving up a lot math wise...but, really, a locked 35 million pretty much ensures a sexy standard of living for the rest of my life.

Orgazmo · 05-14-2008, 09:54 AM

Wow, most people's answers are quite a bit lower than I thought they would be.

Ugly Bastard · 05-14-2008, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orgazmo

35 million. I realize that this is giving up a lot math wise...but, really, a locked 35 million pretty much ensures a sexy standard of living for the rest of my life.

My response to this is: ... and $8 million doesn't?

I know what you mean though. When I was asked this question, I was around some ballin' motherfuckas so I prefaced it by saying "wow... I probably sound like a huge pussy, but I'd say like $8 million." They were all like, "no... no... most of us said around like $10 million too."

I'll bet if you think about it, your answer is probably quite a bit less than $35M. Like, pretend this whole proposition is actually thrusted upon you. Do you actually see yourself saying no to $10M to flip the coin?

Orgazmo · 05-14-2008, 12:16 PM

Ya, you're probably right. My initial answer was 50...and then I thought about it more and downed it a bit. Even still, I figured I was lower than most. You have a point, though. 8 mil could probably do the deed.

Beebs · 05-14-2008, 12:35 PM

Shit, I'd say 2 or 3 million on the high side, it would more than cover a reasonable lifestyle or be a great nestegg for your children or family or whatever if you are a pussy. High risk aversion I guess.

I think alot of you would lower your cost in reality, especially if the person was offering the money as a yes or no proposition and not willing to negotiate.

SittinOnDubsWGW · 05-14-2008, 02:18 PM

Thats going to be a life-changing amount of money. Something as low as 1% of that amount you could live extremely well on for the rest of your life. I would say that there is a huge "law of diminishing returns" at some point. That will vary with each person, I would probably set the number $10M.

Also, I wonder how many people would take the coinflip regardless of their financial situation, just because they are freerollin' for a Billion.

C00ter · 05-14-2008, 04:29 PM

500 Million

Mr. Blonde · 05-14-2008, 04:53 PM

I re-read the question. That's a tough call.

Probably 50 mil..

DJ FC · 05-14-2008, 08:48 PM

So I wonder if I can reason this out... I've often asked myself: "What is greatest risk in % terms that I would take for $1 billion if the losing scenario was an instant painless death?"

And I honestly think I'd put it at between 30-50%, yet in your scenario I'd take the quick $10 million and run... or maybe I wouldn't. Now that I think about it $10 million might be too low. Hmm... I have to think about this.

What does this say about me? Am I irrational? Or do I just REALLY want a large sum of money?

Beebs · 05-14-2008, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George W. Bush

So I wonder if I can reason this out... I've often asked myself: "What is greatest risk in % terms that I would take for $1 billion if the losing scenario was an instant painless death?"

And I honestly think I'd put it at between 30-50%, yet in your scenario I'd take the quick $10 million and run... or maybe I wouldn't. Now that I think about it $10 million might be too low. Hmm... I have to think about this.

What does this say about me? Am I irrational? Or do I just REALLY want a large sum of money?

Not really, because if you count anything above say 30 million as all the same, which it basically is, the expected value falls to 15 million or so, through in some risk aversion and it seems alot different than the pure math.

Ugly Bastard · 05-14-2008, 10:11 PM

Dude you'd take a 30-50% risk of dying wherein you win $1B if you don't? That's fucking sick. I'm not even sure I'd do it for 2%.

Repugnant Abomination · 05-14-2008, 11:18 PM

I said 1 million dollars.

You guys are greedy bastards.

Cocktooth · 05-14-2008, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beebs

Not really, because if you count anything above say 30 million as all the same, which it basically is, the expected value falls to 15 million or so, through in some risk aversion and it seems alot different than the pure math.

I 2nd that!

Mr. Blonde · 05-15-2008, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Repugnant Abomination

I said 1 million dollars.

You guys are greedy bastards.

one million dollars will get you 10 years of comfortableness, if you know what you're doing. most people who fall into that kind of money (myself included) would use up a mil a lot quicker than that, if they had it.

theres a difference in what our spending habits would be now, with not a lot of money to spend, than if we had a shit ton to spend. A mil would go pretty fast i'm sure.

SittinOnDubsWGW · 05-15-2008, 03:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Blonde

one million dollars will get you 10 years of comfortableness, if you know what you're doing. most people who fall into that kind of money (myself included) would use up a mil a lot quicker than that, if they had it.

theres a difference in what our spending habits would be now, with not a lot of money to spend, than if we had a shit ton to spend. A mil would go pretty fast i'm sure.

Very Very true.

I have always said that if I were to come into a sum of money like a Mil, I'd just invest it and use the interest as disposible income.

THEINCREDIBLEdork · 05-15-2008, 05:47 AM

If the death was instant and painless I'd take a coin flip, heads death, tails billion dollars.

vaga1220 * · 05-15-2008, 06:34 AM

100 bucks!!!!

Beebs · 05-15-2008, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ugly Bastard

Dude you'd take a 30-50% risk of dying wherein you win $1B if you don't? That's fucking sick. I'm not even sure I'd do it for 2%.

Holy shit, I didn't catch the death part, I assumed the sentance ended "or winning no money at all".

malibu · 05-15-2008, 05:09 PM

X would have to be at least 500 million. If it's either 1 billion or nothing, I'd just take the 500 mill and walk away.

Wow, I guess I am greedy after going back and reading everyone else's answers. I just think that if I have a chance to walk away with a billion that I would rather have half and not win or lose.

05-14-2008, 01:07 AM	#1 (permalink)
Ugly Bastard Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: U.S.A. Posts: 13,643 Internets: 247330	Interesting Theoretical Question About $$$ Some poker players I met posed an interesting theoretical question. I think it's best to answer this question without any influence from the answers of others. I'm going to make a ton of space between the question and my answer. Before scrolling down to read anyone's answer, post your own answer. I think it'll be interesting to see how you answer varies from everyone elses in a vacuum. The question: You can either have a.) X amount of money or b.) the chance to flip a coin where you either win $0 or $1 billion. What is the lowest value of X in which you will choose the first option? Take some time to come up with your answer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . My Answer: $8 million
	Last edited by Ugly Bastard; 05-14-2008 at 01:08 AM.

05-14-2008, 03:12 AM	#2 (permalink)
THEINCREDIBLEdork Emperor Meow Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,316 Internets: 284585	50 million
	#YOLO Last edited by THEINCREDIBLEdork; 05-14-2008 at 03:16 AM.

05-14-2008, 04:13 AM	#3 (permalink)
Heaven Can Wait English. Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: England Posts: 868 Internets: 179	1.1 BILLION
	there is little I wouldn't do for a dolphin.

05-14-2008, 05:34 AM	#4 (permalink)
DJ FC MURICAN Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Virginia Posts: 5,136 Internets: 250185	$10 million
	The basis of our governments being the opinion of the people, the very first object should be to keep that right; and were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers, or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter. But I should mean that every man should receive those papers and be capable of reading them.

05-14-2008, 06:06 AM	#5 (permalink)
Cocktooth Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Warsaw Posts: 4,220 Internets: 124047	100 Million.
	Nubblies: If we put up with Felix, we will put up with you too.

05-14-2008, 09:10 AM	#6 (permalink)
Heaven Can Wait English. Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: England Posts: 868 Internets: 179	I figure the idea of this is that a billion is pretty much an infinate amount of cash, in theory you should go for half, but thats not the point of it at all. I'd take enough for my family to live off, probably around $12 mill
	there is little I wouldn't do for a dolphin.

05-14-2008, 09:53 AM	#7 (permalink)
Orgazmo COME ON YOU YANKS Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Indiana Posts: 15,669 Internets: 305662	35 million. I realize that this is giving up a lot math wise...but, really, a locked 35 million pretty much ensures a sexy standard of living for the rest of my life.

05-14-2008, 09:54 AM	#8 (permalink)
Orgazmo COME ON YOU YANKS Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Indiana Posts: 15,669 Internets: 305662	Wow, most people's answers are quite a bit lower than I thought they would be.

05-14-2008, 12:16 PM	#10 (permalink)
Orgazmo COME ON YOU YANKS Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Indiana Posts: 15,669 Internets: 305662	Ya, you're probably right. My initial answer was 50...and then I thought about it more and downed it a bit. Even still, I figured I was lower than most. You have a point, though. 8 mil could probably do the deed.

05-14-2008, 12:35 PM	#11 (permalink)
Beebs Poor Sport Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Indianapolis / Middlebury / Long Lake Posts: 5,306 Internets: 127341	Shit, I'd say 2 or 3 million on the high side, it would more than cover a reasonable lifestyle or be a great nestegg for your children or family or whatever if you are a pussy. High risk aversion I guess. I think alot of you would lower your cost in reality, especially if the person was offering the money as a yes or no proposition and not willing to negotiate.

05-14-2008, 02:18 PM	#12 (permalink)
SittinOnDubsWGW I make bad decisions. Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: The Desert Posts: 3,018 Internets: 108015	Thats going to be a life-changing amount of money. Something as low as 1% of that amount you could live extremely well on for the rest of your life. I would say that there is a huge "law of diminishing returns" at some point. That will vary with each person, I would probably set the number $10M. Also, I wonder how many people would take the coinflip regardless of their financial situation, just because they are freerollin' for a Billion.
	Last edited by SittinOnDubsWGW; 05-14-2008 at 02:22 PM.

05-14-2008, 04:29 PM	#13 (permalink)
C00ter Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: MBury! Posts: 119 Internets: 546	500 Million

05-14-2008, 04:53 PM	#14 (permalink)
Mr. Blonde Spice Master Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 17,969 Internets: 278288	I re-read the question. That's a tough call. Probably 50 mil..

05-14-2008, 08:48 PM	#15 (permalink)
DJ FC MURICAN Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Virginia Posts: 5,136 Internets: 250185	So I wonder if I can reason this out... I've often asked myself: "What is greatest risk in % terms that I would take for $1 billion if the losing scenario was an instant painless death?" And I honestly think I'd put it at between 30-50%, yet in your scenario I'd take the quick $10 million and run... or maybe I wouldn't. Now that I think about it $10 million might be too low. Hmm... I have to think about this. What does this say about me? Am I irrational? Or do I just REALLY want a large sum of money?
	The basis of our governments being the opinion of the people, the very first object should be to keep that right; and were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers, or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter. But I should mean that every man should receive those papers and be capable of reading them.

05-14-2008, 10:11 PM	#17 (permalink)
Ugly Bastard Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: U.S.A. Posts: 13,643 Internets: 247330	Dude you'd take a 30-50% risk of dying wherein you win $1B if you don't? That's fucking sick. I'm not even sure I'd do it for 2%.

05-15-2008, 06:34 AM	#23 (permalink)
vaga1220 * *Dislikes ham Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: HELL 666 Posts: 1,515 Internets: 60790	100 bucks!!!!
	Putting the sensual in non-consensual.

05-14-2008, 11:18 PM	#18 (permalink)
Repugnant Abomination Almost there... Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 5,979 Internets: 161638	I said 1 million dollars. You guys are greedy bastards.

05-15-2008, 05:47 AM	#22 (permalink)
THEINCREDIBLEdork Emperor Meow Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,316 Internets: 284585	If the death was instant and painless I'd take a coin flip, heads death, tails billion dollars.
	#YOLO

05-15-2008, 05:09 PM	#25 (permalink)
malibu Caribou Lou Join Date: May 2003 Location: Warsaw, IN, Usa Posts: 948 Internets: 567	X would have to be at least 500 million. If it's either 1 billion or nothing, I'd just take the 500 mill and walk away. Wow, I guess I am greedy after going back and reading everyone else's answers. I just think that if I have a chance to walk away with a billion that I would rather have half and not win or lose.
	"Remember, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Except for herpes. That shit'll come back with you." Last edited by malibu; 05-15-2008 at 05:14 PM. Reason: Damn I'm greedy

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